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Here's everything you need to know about the Cardinals vs Athletics series finale on Wednesday, April 17.
Cardinals vs Athletics odds have St. Louis as -142 favorites on the moneyline. while the over/under is set at 7.5 or 8, depending on the book. Oakland will hand the ball to right-handed starter Paul Blackburn, and I'm looking at his prop market for strikeouts for my Cardinals vs Athletics prediction.
Let's dive into how I am fading Blackburn as I make a Cardinals vs Athletics prop pick.
Cardinals vs. Athletics Odds
Wednesday, April 17, 3:37 p.m. ET, Bally Sports Midwest | NBCS-CA
| Cardinals Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| -142 |
7.5 -120 / +100 |
-1.5 +120 |
| Athletics Odds | ||
|---|---|---|
| Moneyline | Total | Run Line |
| +120 |
7.5 -120 / +100 |
+1.5 +100 |
Odds via FanDuel. Get up-to-the-minute MLB odds here.
St. Louis Cardinals
There's no denying that St. Louis has gotten off to a tough start at the dish this season, but the one thing it does well is avoid the punchout. As a team this season, the Cardinals boast a Strikeout Rate below 23%.
Looking at Wednesday's projected starting lineup, five of the Cardinals' nine hitters possess a Strikeout Rate below 22%. The main reason for the strikeout market being so low for Blackburn is that St. Louis has faced much stronger starting pitchers thus far than they will face on Wednesday.
Additionally, this lineup is full of lethal hitters who can chase Blackburn early. Ivan Herrera, Brendon Donovan, Masyn Winn, Alec Burleson and Nolan Arenado all boast xBA in the upper-50th percentiles this season.
Oakland Athletics
Blackburn has gotten off to a perfect start this season, boasting a 1-0 record with a 0.00 ERA and 0.72 WHIP through three outings. However, the one thing he doesn't do well is rack up the punchouts.
Entering this matchup, Blackburn ranks in the 44th percentile in Whiff Rate and 17th percentile in Strikeout Rate. These rankings are not a new phenomena for the 30-year-old, given that he has finished with a Strikeout Rate below 23%.
Now is the time to sell high on a pitcher who is over-performing. Last season, Blackburn ranked in the 39th percentile or lower in xERA, xBA and Whiff%.
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Cardinals vs. Athletics
Betting Pick & Prediction
It's not a hot take that Blackburn isn't as good of a pitcher as he has appeared to be this season. While that is sort of an obvious statement, it bodes well for fading his strikeout prop considering that he has failed to excel in that department despite throwing the best games of his career.
Regression is going to hit Blackburn, and that will inevitably impact his strikeout stats, which are already below average to begin with. In fact, Blackburn has recorded three or fewer strikeouts in three of his past six starts.
While that is not a crazy trend in terms of betting, it is more than enough when we consider that his under on that number pays out +130.
Pick: Paul Blackburn Under 3.5 Strikeouts (+130 at FanDuel | Play to +125)
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