NBA best bets: Expert Picks for Sunday, Feb. 4

Suns vs. Wizards

Sunday, Feb. 4, 3:30 p.m. ET (NBA TV)
Wizards Team Total Under 113.5 points (DraftKings)

By Michael Arinze

Books continue to set high totals in Wizards games despite their offense completely sputtering at the moment.

If you exclude their three contests against the two worst teams in the league, the Spurs (2) and Pistons, the Wizards have struggled to reach the 110-point scoring mark over a 10-game period.

During that span, the under has cashed in seven straight Wizards games. Moreover, the under is on a 17-7 run over their last 24 games.

With the Suns coming to town, the total opened at 243, but that number has been bet down as low as 238. While I agree with the move, the better play is to target the under on the Wizards team total.

The Phoenix Suns (16th) have been improving defensively of late following a poor start, and they certainly sit above the Spurs (23rd) and Pistons (29th) in terms of Defensive Efficiency.

Given the quality of their opponent, expect to see the Wizards’ struggles continue. It’s worth noting that the Wizards team total is 9-1 to the under over their last 10 games.

I recommend playing the Wizards team total under 113.5 points at -125 odds at DraftKings.

Pick: Wizards Team Total Under 113.5 points

Grizzlies vs. Celtics

Sunday, Feb. 4, 6 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds (DraftKings)

By Bryan Fonseca

Relative to this line, Jaylen Brown has actually been up and down lately, as he has hit the over in six of his last 10 games. However, Action Pro has a double-digit edge on Brown’s over for points and rebounds separately, so why not lump them together in a favorable matchup against the Memphis Grizzlies?

Brown's scoring volatility is always tricky to bet on as he is one of the more inconsistent All-Star talents in the league, but overall, he's shooting 52/35/71 in his last 14 games with 22.1 points per game with 6.3 rebounds per contest.

The reason this prop line is so low is his general inconsistency — he could score over 23.5 points alone, but the occasional eight-point dud, like on Thursday, may hurt. Still, he should have a nice scoring output, and he's been active on the glass, so give me this over in a potential one-sided affair.

Pick: Jaylen Brown Over 23.5 Points + Rebounds

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Rockets vs. Timberwolves

Sunday, Feb. 4, 7 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Alperen Sengun Under 30.5 Points + Assists (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Rockets take on the Timberwolves in what should be a slugfest. This is a particularly brutal matchup for Alperen Sengun as he lines up against Rudy Gobert.

When Sengun has played against Gobert during his time with the Timberwolves, Sengun has averaged just 19.3 points, 6.7 rebounds and 3.3 assists in three games.

Gobert is an excellent defensive player, and although he is listed as questionable, he played through that same tag last game in a 39-minute performance against the Magic.

The Timberwolves have the league’s best defense, and even though Sengun has averaged 21.7 points, 9.3 rebounds and 5.1 assists this season, this matchup will slow him down.

Pick: Alperen Sengun Under 30.5 Points + Assists

Bucks vs. Jazz

Sunday, Feb. 4. 8 p.m. ET (NBA League Pass)
Collin Sexton Over 19.5 Points (-120, BetMGM)

By Joe Dellera

The Bucks have been a sieve against opposing guards, and Collin Sexton has been dynamic of late. He’s averaging 22.3 points per game over his last 10 games and has exceeded this line in eight of his last 10 games. Sexton has been excellent attacking the paint and scoring from midrange.

The Bucks have the 19th ranked Adjusted Defense and allow their opponents to take the highest rate of midrange shots in the NBA. Consequently, this is a great matchup for Sexton.

I’ll grab him to exceed his points prop today.

Pick: Collin Sexton Over 19.5 Points (-120)