NBA Play-In best bets: Expert picks, player props, odds for Friday 4/19

Bulls vs. Heat

Friday, April 19, 7 p.m. ET, ESPN
Coby White Over 2.5 Made 3s (DraftKings)

By Joe Dellera

The Bulls face off against the Miami Heat in a winner-take-all matchup for the rights to sell tickets to two home games against the Boston Celtics.

Coby White will have his chance to shine in this spot.

The candidate for Most Improved Player has been tremendous this season. Since January 1st, he is averaging 20.2 points, 5.4 assists, 4.7 rebounds and 2.5 3s on 6.8 attempts. He has been instrumental for this Bulls offense.

White spiked in production against this Heat team, particularly from long range against their zone defense. He has made four or more 3s in six consecutive games against Miami on 8.8 attempts per game.

When he has played 20+ minutes, he is 8/10 making three or more 3s, and when playing 30 or more minutes, he’s 5/5 at 3+ as well. He should easily see 30+ minutes having played a massive 44 of 48 minutes in the first Play-In Tournament game against the Hawks.

Considering his new role this season, he should continue to find success in this spot. I’ll take him at his base line of over 2.5 3s and ladder it to 4+ (+250 at bet365) and 5+ (+600 at FanDuel).

Pick: Coby White Over 2.5 Made 3s

Bulls vs. Heat

Nikola Vucevic Under 17.5 Points (BetMGM)

By Bryan Fonseca

Vucevic has gone under 17.5 points in seven of his last nine games against Bam Adebayo, and that includes last year's Play-In Tournament game in this oddly similar scenario.

Additionally, the Heat without Jimmy Butler have a more susceptible perimeter defense, meaning the increased opportunities should actually come for Coby White, DeMar DeRozan and Ayo Dosunmu, in particular.

I don't think this is a Vucevic game, and Adebayo is likely to put forth another great defensive effort, even if his team comes up short again.

Adebayo helped limit Joel Embiid to a 6-for-17 shooting performance on Wednesday, and Vucevic shouldn't be as much of a focal point for the Bulls offense.

Pick: Nikola Vucevic Under 17.5 Points

Bulls vs. Heat

Coby White Over 4.5 Assists (DraftKings)

By Chris Baker

Coby White will play more than 40 minutes in this game, and Erik Spoelstra should make a concerted effort to limit his scoring. He’s averaging six assists per game against the Heat this season and even erupted for 11 assists once back on December 14th.

The Heat allow a ton of threes as they are 28th in the NBA in Opponent 3-point Attempt Rate Allowed but are among the top 10 in Rim Rate. They make a concerted effort to limit paint touches and rim looks, and I expect the Heat to occasionally blitz White to get the ball out of his hands, especially since he is coming off a 42-point explosion against the Hawks.

White had six assists in that game but didn’t have to play the entire game as it was a blowout. I project him closer to 45 minutes here if this game is competitive as he should have plenty of opportunities for assists because the Heat will dare certain guys like Nikola Vucevic and Ayo Dosunmu to beat them rather than allow White to go off again.

Sprinkle the alt line of over 7.5 assists at +500 as well.

Pick: Coby White Over 4.5 Assists

Bulls vs. Heat

Heat 1H ML -120 (FanDuel)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

If you follow me on X or at Action, you’ve probably heard me talk about the “star player out” theory. It’s the idea that teams overperform in their first game without a star player.

The Heat are the ultimate team for this theory, in large part because of their “Heat Culture” and next-man-up mentality (gross). The Heat have excelled in these spots early in games. This season, in their first game without Butler, the Heat are 7-2 against the spread (ATS) in the first half, but just 4-5 straight up (SU) for the full game.

The pattern seems to be that the Heat punch teams in the mouth coming out of the gate but can’t necessarily sustain the same level of play over the course of the entire game.

However, if we look at all 22 games missed for Butler, the Heat are even better in the first half at 16-6 ATS, but they are also a lot better over the course of the game at 13-9 straight up.

Expect Miami to start strong even without Butler in the lineup.

Pick: Heat 1H ML -120

Bulls vs. Heat

Nikola Jovic Over 7.5 Points (FanDuel)

By Bryan Fonseca

This is a risk I'm willing to take.

The Heat are without Jimmy Butler and Terry Rozier, and Duncan Robinson is probable but was a healthy DNP-CD (Did Not Play – Coach’s Decision) on Wednesday.

Nikola Jovic should've played more against the 76ers, and hopefully he does against the Bulls.

Jovic will likely start again at the four, as he has been, but his minutes have generally reflected that of a placeholder who starts the first and third quarters, and if he gets another shift, it's hardly ever to close unless he's playing really well.

To hit this over, he needs to at least score in his first shift. However, he's done so more often lately to the tune of going over 7.5 points in 10 of his last 15 games, and he is averaging nearly 11 points per game during that stretch.

In his last nine games without Butler, Jovic has logged at least 24 minutes in all but two and exceeded 7.5 points four times.

Pick: Nikola Jovic Over 7.5 Points

Kings vs. Pelicans

Friday, April 19, 9:30 p.m. ET, ESPN
Pelicans ML +100 (FanDuel)

By Chris Baker

I’m surprised to see the Pelicans as underdogs here, even with Zion Williamson out. The Pelicans have owned the Kings this season as the Pelicans won all five matchups and did so resoundingly by an average margin of 19.5 points per game. The Kings only lost one of those five game by single digits when they lost by five points back on November 22nd.

Eight days ago, the Pelicans beat the Kings by 12 points as their 121.1 Halfcourt Offensive Rating dwarfed the Kings’ 103.5 Halfcourt Offensive Rating.

This bet is also about the market fundamentally overvaluing Williamson’s impact on the Pelicans. Williamson actually had his least efficient shooting season of his career by True Shooting Percentage and his lowest Box Plus/Minus season since his rookie year.

The Pelicans actually had a better Net Rating with Williamson off the floor than with him on the floor this season (+7.3 off compared to +2.5 with him on. Williamson is a great player, but his absence doesn’t get me to the Pelicans being home underdogs against the Kings.

The market is overreacting to a Kings blowout win over a bad Warriors team that was very familiar. This Pelicans team will be a much tougher challenge, and Herb Jones will do a great job of limiting De’Aaron Fox and forcing other guys to beat them. Trust the Pelicans as home underdogs here.

Pick: Pelicans ML +100

Kings vs. Pelicans

Pelicans ML +105 (FanDuel)

By Maltman

Zion Williamson went down with an injury and is out tonight, and the Kings are coming into New Orleans favored to win the game. Brandon Ingram is also coming back from injury and was conspicuously absent down the stretch against the Lakers.

Of course, the Kings are also missing their two shooting guards. One of whom, Malik Monk, also played backup point guard this year and was relied upon to create offense when Fox was out of the game. The Kings were underdogs at home versus the Warriors, but now they are favorites on the road against the Pelicans.

In case you hadn't seen, the Pelicans and Kings actually played five times this season, and the Pelicans won all five games, including one without Williamson. The Pelicans played well without Williamson this year as well, with a positive Net Rating of +7.2. I know we bet the Kings to miss the playoffs earlier, but I'm comfortable doubling down here to back the Pelicans at plus money.

I'm betting a half unit on Pelicans to win at +105.

Pick: Pelicans ML +105

Kings vs. Pelicans

Pelicans +1.5 (Bet365)

By Andrew O'Connor-Watts

The Pelicans have been a great bet against the Kings all season as they swept the season series 5-0 by an average margin of 19.2 points. They'll be without Zion Williamson due to a hamstring injury. On the other hand, the Kings will be without key contributors Malik Monk and Kevin Huerter, who don't quite have Williamson-level talent but are still significant role players.

Williamson missed a game this season, but the Pelicans still beat the Kings 133-100 thanks to an elite scoring performance by CJ McCollum when he scored 30 points on 11-16 shooting and was 7-10 on 3s. McCollum had a rough night against LA, but he still can lead the Pelicans to a win tonight.

Brandon Ingram is also back, and Trey Murphy III has been playing great, so the Pelicans' depth should keep them in this game. On the other end, the Kings lack depth with Monk and Huerter out, so if anyone gets in foul trouble for Sacramento, it could be an issue.

The Pels have also risen to the occasion, despite the narrative that they shrink in big games. Off of a loss when facing a winning team, New Orleans is 16-6-1 ATS. If the Pelicans flip to favorites, I'd still bet them on the moneyline to -115.

Pick: Pelicans +1.5